Backing the underdogs. Would it be profitable?

If you’ve ever wondered would it be a good idea to start backing the underdogs when betting on football matches and whether chasing the bigger odds would be more successful than betting on lower rates, then this publication would be interesting for you. Here you would see the results from a study involving nearly 35,000 matches from the big leagues in Europe and thanks to which we could easily analyze the results of matches with different odds. All matches are from the best leagues in Europe like Premier League, Championship, First and Second League in England, Bundesliga and Second Bundesliga in Germany, Ligue 1 and Ligue 2 in France, La Liga and La Ligue 2 in Spain, Serie A and Serie B in Italy, the championships of the Netherlands and Portugal.

For each of the matches from the past six years in these championships we have taken the odds offered by the bookmakers, the half time score and the final result of the game.

Armed with this database of information we can easily make various analyzes related to our desire to build a winning betting strategy for football matches. Here’s what you get when talking about betting with higher odds.

To summarize in one sentence, betting on bigger odds (we bet on every game with bigger odds) is just as unprofitable as betting on lower odds. The bookmakers, as might be expected have done a great job to offer us truly accurate rates and gain their needed profit from the margin, which again limits the players in their search for success in bets on football matches.

What do the data show?

If in the past six years we have decided to bet on each outcome from a match with odds bigger than 5, we would had to make 6462 bets. From these the winners would be only 770 bets. These 770 wins for the underdogs would bring us a profit of 5297 units or in other words, we would have a serious loss of 1165 units.

If we make things even more interesting and begin to bet on really high rates, lets say with coefficients above 14, we would see that for the past six years we would have made exactly 567 bets. Interestingly, we would be profitable in 17 games, but unfortunately these 17 great wins for the underdogs, would bring us only 319 units. This is 247 units less than what would bet.

Unfortunately, all this shows that betting only on pure statistics for the underdogs in football matches would be a losing strategy. Alas.