If you make a careful analysis of the results from the last six years in the biggest European football leagues you would notice a trend that can be used for the creation of a winning strategy for betting on football matches. We are talking about backing the visitors when they have odds for win between 1.91 and 2.3. The last have been checked in the leagues of England, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Portugal and the Netherlands. In these cases, the guests managed to achieve the win so often that such bets could bring profits even in flat betting.
The most curious thing is that this is proven by the statistic from the last six seasons in these leagues. However, it is also true that the profit would not be particularly large, but it would be a good basis for using different strategies for football betting.
What do the numbers say?
For the past six years in the biggest European football leagues have been played 470 matches where the guests had odds for a win between 1.91 and 2. In these meetings, the victory was for the away team in 242 games or 51.48% of the games. When playing singles this would bring us profit of 5.04 units. Even more curious is the fact that with higher rates we would have even better results. The profit from backing teams with odds between 2.11 and 2.2 with flat betting would be 19.18 units. This is from 636 bets from which 303 were winners or 47.64%.
If we decide to escape the options to bet on 3 possible outcomes and begin to bet with Draw No Bet we would also find that it could be successful. With DNB for the away team we would have around 70 percent success rate. The percentages for away win with DNB with odds for the away win between 2.01 and 2.1 were 65; it is 64 for the matches with odds between 2.11 and 2.2 and 60% in all meetings with the coefficient for the guests between 2.21 and 2.3.
Well, it is easy to be seen that the profit would not be enough for the development of truly winning strategy, especially when it comes to betting on singles. However, if we decide to use it for settling bets to the value of the betting bonuses we could get from the betting companies than this strategy becomes extremely profitable. The odds are high enough and returns some profit so, it could ensures us a successful play for the bonuses offered by bookmakers and hence a net profit.
Separately, this bets could also be used successfully for money management systems like Martingale or other systems for progressive betting, but with much higher risk.